The difference between real estate with roots and real estate with wings
Mats Kramer
16 april 2026
5 min read
The difference between real estate with roots and real estate with wings
Dubai’s economic model has been a success story for many years. A city that, in just a few decades, grew from a trading post into a global financial hub, driven by a deliberate strategy: no income tax, a golden visa for investors, and a business environment designed to attract people from all over the world.
That model was built on a number of assumptions about population growth, the continuous inflow of international talent, and regional stability. For years, those assumptions held true. In 2026, they no longer do.
The assumptions are shifting
Dubai has grown by roughly 4% per year in recent years, almost entirely driven by migration. That growth translated directly into rising property prices and fully occupied office towers. However, financial services firm Citi has lowered its population growth forecast for 2026 to 1%, and to 2 to 2.5% for the years thereafter.
The consequences are already becoming visible. Reuters reported that real estate transactions in the first twelve days of March fell by 37% compared to a year earlier, while Goldman Sachs calculated that total transaction value was cut in half. Homes on the secondary market are now being offered at discounts of 12 to 15%. These figures do not suggest that Dubai was a bad story, but they do show that the story has changed.
Mobility cuts both ways
This is the core many investors underestimate. A population that consists of 90% expats is, by definition, mobile. People who can arrive easily can also leave easily. They are not held in place by family networks, not tied to local customer bases, and not anchored by long-term leases.
Compare that to a Dutch business leasing office space because its customers are nearby and its employees live in the region. The difference is not the quality of the real estate, but the nature of demand. In a rooted population, property demand is structural: people live somewhere because it is their home. In an expat-driven market, property demand is transactional: it exists as long as the proposition holds, and propositions change.
Since the conflict, tens of thousands of expats have left. These are not people losing their home, but people choosing another option simply because they have one and nothing is holding them in place. For a real estate investor, that is the difference between rental income that holds up under pressure and rental income that evaporates at the first sign of headwinds.
“In a rooted population, real estate demand is structural; in an expat market, real estate demand is transactional.”
Investor Relations Manager
Structural regional risk
The Gulf region sits at a geopolitical fault line that does not disappear with a ceasefire. Tensions between Iran and the Gulf states, the shifting role of the United States in the region, and reliance on the Strait of Hormuz are structural factors that will continue to shape the risk profile in the years ahead.
Insurers are pricing in higher risk premiums, international banks have pulled staff out of the region, and Citi has pointed to a material risk for future population growth. These are professional risk assessments that feed directly into how capital flows into the region. And in a market driven by mobile residents, every shift in sentiment translates almost immediately into shifting demand for real estate.
Europe may seem boring. Until you see the opportunities.
In the same changing world, Europe—and the Netherlands in particular—becomes relatively more attractive. Not because Europe has suddenly become spectacular, but because the world around it has become more uncertain. Capital seeks stability, tenants seek legal certainty, and the Dutch market offers exactly that: long-term lease agreements with companies that are located there because their market is there, supervision by the AFM in the interest of investors, and above all, a population that lives there because it is their home. That rootedness translates into something you cannot buy in Dubai: structural, predictable demand for real estate.
“But what about returns?”
The Benkey Real Estate Fund invests in commercial real estate in the Netherlands, specifically in value-add properties where value is created through active management and lease optimisation. In 2025, this strategy resulted in a net total return of 38.8% on Dutch real estate, with a portfolio of more than €150 million. The long-term outlook is expected to be around 15% net per year, including a stable distribution of up to 8%. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it does show that you do not need to look to a conflict region for strong returns.
The opportunities are here—where the fundamentals are solid.
Sources: Reuters, The Guardian, Deutsche Welle (DW), Goldman Sachs, Citi Research
